A harsh lesson for the Tories: you can’t outrun tactical voting | Peter Kellner

The dramatic Tiverton and Honiton result shows how strategic anti-Conservative voting could decide the next general election

Dramatic byelections tend to produce two opposite reactions. Winners call them earthquakes, while losers detect nothing more than a routine murmur. The dramatic results in Wakefield, and Tiverton and Honiton, certainly approach the disruptive end of the Richter scale.

The reason is not just the sharp decline in Conservative support, but the ferocious way in which tactical voting compounded the Tories’ misery. This makes it more likely that the party will lose power at the next election – even if the swing in Wakefield was not enough to enhance Labour’s hopes of a clear majority in the House of Commons.

Peter Kellner is a former president of YouGov

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from The Guardian https://ift.tt/gBHsNXM